We all know that I am biased to one specific candidate but I am going to be completely unbiased here to give you my prediction for the 10th:
Ely is a good guy but he's so far off the radar that he's not going to get more than 5% of the vote.
Hackett despite giving that used car salesman aura is one of two winnable candidates. He has money and can speak more about the issues than any other candidate. Take the fact that he's playing party line politics if we restore seats in the house this November he has the chance to get funded by all the RNC leadership PACs. If his campaign is successful he will be a lifer. I don't like him or trust him but he is someone who can get the voters behind him. Besides he can beat Carney. He keeps hammering away at Carney every chance he gets. He's also the only candidate who can throw money around to compete against Meuser.
Meuser's only chance at winning the primary is money. His past contributions sexual harrassment lawsuit and medicare fraud settlement will haunt his campaign and that's something that money will not be able to resolve. He may win the primary but he won't get past Carney. Carney will play the nasty liberal games the democrats play and retain his seat is Meuser wins. I wouldn't put it past Carney to use Meuser's dirt against him to win.
Swiderski has the policies in place to be a serious candidate but without money or grassroots support he's going to fall off the radar and never get his message across. He positions himself well but looking at the money that's needed to run he's never going to raise enough to make a serious run. I like the guy and what he stands for and the fact that he won't win will not stop me from voting for him. I endorse him because he is the best candidate in my opinion even if he's not going anywhere.
My take on the tenth: a close race between Hackett and Meuser. If Hackett wins we get the seat back if Meuser wins we won't.
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8 comments:
A little early for predictions although you may be right.
Gort
we know the battle lines are clearly drawn. Meuser has the money and makes it clear that he's out to win this race at all costs. Hackett is ready to do battle building up his war chest and he's getting his name out there. It's like a taunt and tease to get Meuser to throw his ads out there. A little jab here and there from Hackett and Meuser's going to cave in and start the spending spree.
Both campaigns are not worried about Ely. He's the "vote none of the above" vote for the district.
Both campaigns are worried that if Swiderski gets enough support he'll take away votes and maybe squeak through the primary. I don't think this will happen. Swiderski said he's already spent all the money he can on the race and that his campaign from now on is all about public support. So far no money was raised outside his own funds and there's nobody knocking on his door to donate. He's not going to raise over a million dollars. He's never going to raise over six figures. I'll be surprised if he raises 10k. With no money he's not even going to be able to do a grassroots campaign. Not even a couple of Ron Paul supporters could get this campaign off life support.
At first I thought I was underestimating Swiderski but now knowing how the race is taking shape it will take a miracle for the "little man" to pull it off in the 10th. By the time the 4th quarter finance reports are filed anyone who doesn't have at least $250,000 raised has no shot. Half a million would be a better benchmark. There are only 2 candidates with this kind of money and the one I like isn't one of them.
Hackett and Meuser want this race to be all about them. They want to make sure that Swiderski has no chance of winning or even stealing votes away from them. Swiderski's little blip on the radar screen is fading away and Hackett and Meuser can both focus on the campaigns without having to squash this guy like a bug.
You are right that it will come down to Meuser and Hackett. While I was a big fan of Buddy Hackett (Chris's father?) I am no fan of a temp agency pirate. A temp job is just another spray of oil onto an already slippery slope. At least Pride has real, full time employees with benefits. For that reason alone, you have to give the nod to Meuser.
Zen
Swiderski is not worth the time it takes to type his name,to say he has no chance is an understatement.
Hackett is a opportunist who fills jobs that other people create.
He's especially good at re-cycling county jobs,and he may have some more opportunities if the current financial mess in luzerne county isn't resolved by year end.
Actually Swiderski might be helpful at the courthouse as he has had some experience with financial messes.
Dan Meuser is the only one who has actually created meaningful jobs,permanent, full time jobs.
Meuser is the only viable candidate on the republican side, and he will show Carney the door in November.
Meuser is the only one who shows any real job growth and retention. I know some people who work or worked for Pride. Each employee said that they made a better than average wage at Pride.
Most of the jobs Hackett created are temporary staffing jobs. I can open a temp agency tomorrow and hire 100 people. Not everyone will be earning a wage tomorrow or the next day. Most people are put on a waiting list and are employed when the market demands the need for an employee with certain skills.
Experience is a big asset in a race. Meuser has that advantage.
10:20
Better than average wages is a start, but it isn't enough for this area. Five years from now, beyond his residency ties, what will keep Dan Meuser or any other manufacturer from moving production to a town on the Mexican border? What skill sets do these employees have that can't be easily transferred across state and country lines?
Unless Swiderski gets some major publicity soon, he probably won't get enough money to compete. The fact is that instead of trying to take him out, both frontrunners should be looking to Paul and whatever braintrust he has for support. If inroads aren't made soon, Paul's interested but not donating supporters will number enough to keep Carney in office.
The winning formula will entail one of the candidates nudging their donors to give Paul enough money to present a viable campaign and let him do the dirty work. For an example, look at how Bill Richardson has practically been the bodyguard for the Junior Senator from New York during the debates.
Money greases the wheels of politics, but you can't win if your strategists are unable to keep up with the new realities of the political landscape.
J.Kelly,
Pride is committed to this area. If moving production to a town on the Mexican border was the goal, what's stopping them from moving now?
Pride likes the area, the area sure as heck should like Pride.
As far as Swiderski, he needs to go, he's a distraction at best.
I doubt he has any real supporters other than family & friends, and would probably have trouble getting arrested outside of his home turf.
Pride is a good company for the 11th district. The Meuser family should be commended for doing what entrepreneurs dream of achieving.
KAR, if you focused on the positive aspects of Dan Meuser instead of letting Swiderski get under your skin, you would be doing Meuser a favor. Insulting and attacking a candidate who has no chance of winning makes you and the Meuser campaign look like your beating up on the "little guy."
I guess you never learned one lesson when you were growing up: If you ignore someone they'll go away. If Swiderski's a distraction and not even worth the effort to type his name then stop mentioning him in your posts. The hype's peaked. After Christmas nobody will know who he is. Then it will just be you versus Hackett.
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